Looks like Herman Cain is leading the
latest Iowa
Poll. Will he say King of the Hill?
Do polling trends make a
difference? Checkout this article from 2007, about the 2000
Republican Primaries. George Bush led every poll from November 1998
until he won the nomination. This time around its gone from Romney to
Gingrich to Romney to Perry to Romney and now to Cain. Its like round and
round she goes, where it stops nobody knows.
I have been writing quite a bit lately about the long
history of the GOP nominating frontrunners (the definition being the
candidate who has lead in the polls from the earliest point, or the candidate
that came in 2nd place the last time).
I am in the process of researching a more in depth piece on
this topic. However, I thought that I would report my findings so far as it
has been a topic of contention around here.
So without further ado, let me present to you a sampling of
2000 Republican primary polls:
Harris Poll, July 1998 (equivalent
of 7-2006). 1st number w/Colin Powell 2nd w/o C.P. MOE +/-4%
Colin Powell 24%/#
George W. Bush 20%/27%
Elizabeth
Dole 10%/13%
Dan Quayle 7%/10%
Jack Kemp 5%/8%
Steve Forbes 5%/6%
Christine Whitman 4%/5%
Newt Gingrich 4%/5%
Wirthlin Worldwide Poll, November 1998
(equivalent of 11-2006)
George
W. Bush 41%
Elizabeth
Dole 13%
Dan
Quayle 6%
Jack
Kemp 6%
Steve
Forbes 6%
Gannett #quot;Mood of America#quot; Poll, January 1999
(equivalent of this point in time)
George
W. Bush 39%
Elizabeth
Dole 22%
Jack
Kemp 8%
Dan
Quayle 6%
Steve
Forbes 5%
Republican Leadership Poll, February 1999
(equivalent of one month from now)
George
W. Bush 40%
Elizabeth
Dole 27%
Dan
Quayle 9%
Steve
Forbes 6%
John
McCain 3%
Research 2000 Poll, May 1999
George
W. Bush 41%
Elizabeth
Dole 19%
John
McCain 12%
Dan
Quayle 9%
Pat
Buchanan 4%
Washington Post Poll, June 1999
George
W. Bush 49%
Elizabeth
Dole 20%
Pat
Buchanan 5%
John
McCain 5%
Dan
Quayle 4%
Gonzales/Arscott Research &
Communications Poll, August 1999
George
W. Bush 59%
Elizabeth
Dole 12%
John
McCain 6%
Steve
Forbes 5%
Dan
Quayle 4%
-
ABC News Poll, August 1999
George
W. Bush 56%
Elizabeth
Dole 14%
John
McCain 6%
Steve
Forbes 6%
Dan
Quayle 5%
Marist Poll, October 1999
George
W. Bush 62%
John
McCain 10%
Steve
Forbes 7%
Gary
Bauer 3%
Alan
Keyes 3%
So basically what we see here is that the early
co-frontrunners (Colin Powell & George W. Bush) were essentially tied
until Powell dropped out.
Then
we have Dubya and Liz Dole #1 & #2 until Dole
dropped out.
We
then see #3 John McCain moving up to #2 spot to fill the void left by Liz
Dole which is how it ended up.
Also
interesting to note, that Dubya had already been
leading in the polls for months by this point in time in the 2000 cycle.
I
am working hard to come up with more numbers from the 1996 and 1980 contests.
So
how significant is this history? State your case in the comments.
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